2026 Tech Predictions: What I Actually Think Will Happen
🎯 The Disclaimer
Everyone makes tech predictions. Most are wrong. I'm probably wrong too.
But here are my actual predictions for 2026, based on real trends I'm seeing, not hype.
✅ What I Think Will Happen
1. AI Will Get Cheaper, Not Smarter
Prediction: AI models will get cheaper to run, but not significantly smarter.
Why: The focus is shifting from bigger models to more efficient ones. Cost reduction, not capability increase.
2. Local AI Will Become Mainstream
Prediction: More developers will run AI models locally, not just in the cloud.
Why: Privacy concerns, cost, and better hardware (Apple Silicon, etc.).
3. Rust Will Grow, But Slowly
Prediction: Rust adoption will increase, but it won't replace C++ or Go anytime soon.
Why: Learning curve is still high. Most projects don't need Rust's benefits.
4. WebAssembly Will Find Its Niche
Prediction: WebAssembly will be used for specific use cases (games, video editing), not general web apps.
Why: JavaScript is good enough for most web apps. WASM is overkill.
5. Serverless Will Plateau
Prediction: Serverless adoption will slow down as people realize it's not always cheaper.
Why: Cost reality is setting in. Traditional servers are often cheaper.
6. TypeScript Will Dominate
Prediction: TypeScript will become the default for new JavaScript projects.
Why: Type safety is worth the overhead. Most developers prefer it.
7. Edge Computing Will Grow
Prediction: More compute will move to the edge, but slowly.
Why: Latency matters, but migration is complex.
❌ What I Don't Think Will Happen
- AGI in 2026: Not happening. We're still far from AGI.
- Blockchain replacing databases: Still not practical for most use cases.
- VR/AR going mainstream: Still too expensive and clunky.
- Quantum computing for general use: Still experimental.
💡 My Focus Areas for 2026
What I'll be watching:
- Local AI adoption
- Cost optimization in cloud
- Developer experience improvements
- Security in AI applications
🎯 Key Takeaways
- AI will get cheaper, not necessarily smarter
- Local AI will grow
- Serverless hype will fade
- TypeScript will dominate
- Most predictions are wrong—including mine
These are my honest predictions. I'll check back in a year to see how wrong I was.