The Hype Cycle in Tech: Where We Are Now
🎯 The Hype Cycle
New technologies follow a pattern: innovation trigger, peak of inflated expectations, trough of disillusionment, slope of enlightenment, plateau of productivity.
📊 Where Things Are
AI/LLMs
We're past the peak, heading into the trough. Hype is cooling, but real applications are emerging. The plateau is coming.
Web3/Crypto
Deep in the trough. Hype is gone, but some real use cases remain. The slope of enlightenment is ahead.
AR/VR
Still climbing the slope. Hype cycles come and go, but the technology keeps improving.
Low-Code/No-Code
On the slope of enlightenment. Hype is gone, but tools are getting better and finding real use cases.
💡 What This Means
When something is hyped:
- Expect disappointment
- Look for real use cases
- Wait for the trough
- Then evaluate seriously
🔄 The Pattern
Every technology:
- Gets hyped
- Disappoints
- Finds real uses
- Becomes normal
AI is in step 2–3. Web3 is in step 2. Most things follow this pattern.
💭 My Take
Don't believe the hype. Don't dismiss the technology. Wait for the trough, then evaluate.
The best time to adopt a technology is after the hype dies down but before it becomes mainstream.